Reducing the natural rate of unemployment requires supply-side policy changes such as:
Labor market flexibility i.e. reduction in minimum wages and trade unions.
Skill development through education and continuous training
Easier systems of hiring and terminating.
Easy relocation for firms and workers example- more supply of labor in high demand areas and comfortable housing market. The natural rate of unemployment can be calculated from the Phillips Curve:
Philips curve given by A.W. Phillips states that unemployment and inflation are inversely related i.e. with growth in the economy, there are more inflation hence more jobs and lesser unemployment. However, it may not hold in the long run as experienced in the recession-inflation of the 1970s in the USA.
According to Friedman, Lower levels of unemployment [than the natural rate] indicate an excess demand for labor. This produces upward pressure on the rates of the real wage. Greater unemployment indicates an excess supply of labor which produces a downward pressure on the rates of the real wages. (Friedman 1968). As per the Natural Rate Hypothesis, unemployment differs from the natural rate of unemployment if expected inflation differs from actual inflation. The natural rate hypothesis was accepted as a dominant model of macroeconomics. It is applied by central banks and acts as the framework for inflation targeting by most central banks today.
Principles of Natural Rate Of Hypothesis
The major principles of NHR that guided economic policy are:
The efficiency of markets i.e. private sectors perform better than public sectors
Neutralization of monetary policy to the real economy,
Ineffectiveness of fiscal policy.
In other words, all other policies that do not influence the incentive structure of the economy were ineffective which was a pure assumption and not evidence-backed. And if the economy stays at equilibrium or attains equilibrium the reasons for the unemployment are purely institutional or structural toughness/rigidity. The monetary and fiscal policies were excluded by this natural rate theory and new options that are feasible were introduced for the division of labor. Central Banks- price stability responsibility rests with central banks. Government- For deregulation and trade union wages (low). Central banks were kings than as it was assumed that strict monetary policy could result in lower inflation as the growth and employment factors were excluded with them showing negative effects. The division of labor implied by NHR made monetary policy responsible for maintaining low inflation. And it does not affect economy i.e. high price stability and growth never competed whereas, on the other hand, the precondition for economic growth was high price stability.
Hence, monetary policy can influence the country’s economic activity in the short term but stays ineffective or neutral in the long term i.e. it does not affect the growth. This made central banks independent that can reduce disturbances or fluctuations and the responsibility is shifted on others such as the Government for labor market deregulation or natural rate reduction and Unions to limit the wage growth.
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